Public sentiment is deeply concerned about the Iran-Israel conflict, focusing on its potential humanitarian crises and economic repercussions on global trade, especially regarding oil prices. There's widespread skepticism about governmental narratives and a strong desire for peace, coupled with critical views on media coverage and calls for diplomatic solutions. Many express empathy for civilians caught in the conflict while advocating for a cessation of hostilities and a focus on economic stability.

Iran

Israel

United States

You can only watch and see. It is not the first time that Israel strikes against Iran and the last time it was over after a week. The last time oil hiked by $10, that seems to be the risk premium. Ships could be stroken, stranded, banned, or just stopped. That means the oil in transit from A to B is affected...

If you can watch Bloomberg TV (e.g. using their $1,50 offer for the first month), they are giving good explanations, background information, estimates from analysts , many consider the price hike in oil as panic buy, becasue there is emergency supply available, and seen that oil was quite cheap the last months many storage facilities now contain big quantities of crude oil bought between $55 and $60  which is apparently now sold into futures.

The rerouting would be 10 days and affects around 25% of the worlds oil traffic. As an optoin they can ride the ships faster (an oil tanker can do up to 25 knots but rarely runs that fast).

Hedging... in case it is relatively calm OTM options would be a possibility. Or if you must get a specific price then you can hedge with CFD contracts. Actually the volatility makes options too expensive... even the far OTMs.

And if you already have a ship loaded you could think about letting it run a different way  but then the oil might arrive 10 days later. If it's for a refinery you could resupply smaller quantities by spot purchases (and a second ship) for example you are buying oil for your refinery. The refinery must not run dry... and keep a reasonable safety reserve in case something goes wrong.

The lesser worse case is ship rerouting, that costs you 2 weeks and some millions extra.

It could be that both sides step out of the trade BEFORE the ship has been loaded because "Force Majeure". Warfare, earthquakes are examples for that.

It could be that both sides have a losss AFTER the ship has been loaded by "havarie grosse" . For all of that you must have an insurance...

WickOfDeath

1. Red Sea : Houthis allies in the region usually tend to shoot whatever is Israeli/USA friendly since they’re backed by Iran. Situation cooled down but might spike again.
Hormuz : Same but with Iran shooting down anything Israeli or USA sided 
2. Rerouting = longer delays for delivery = less product availability + more expensive freight = price increase. 
Market automatically went up because traders know that in these situations prices can only go up. It spiked in anticipation.
3. Can’t reply on this one but I guess they make sure to have different routes, sourcing available -&gt; diversify

JoshJosh17

igetlotsofupvotes

Why does it feel like Iran is completely unprepared?

tituschao

[deleted]

Friday open should be fun.. can’t wait! Great summary, I love the breakdown of the eve of vs the day of strikes!

Falveens

Holding an underwater energy ETF now over a year, at last, a chance to bail.

Recent_Impress_3618

Calling it now: There will be a few rounds of retaliations, but no full blown war

moragisdo

Useful-Grab-9902

doolydelicious

Like how did they manage to kill their chief of defense staff? It's like Iran is not even remotely as powerful as I used to think.

9ight0wl

Top-Huckleberry7640

abey_belasco

This is such a well timed plan:

- what can Iran do ? Hezbollah, Hummus and Syria are too weak to help Iran. (Syria had a regime change, Hezbollah and Hummus became the blind and dickless brigade after thousands of walkie-talkies and Pagers exploded in Gaza and Lebanon last year). 

- Iran could attack USA bases and block the straits of Hormuz, which will prompt USA to join in a regime change. 

- Iran’s new best friend Putin has his own war. China is mired in a trade war with the USA to care.

The ideological opponent of Iran isn’t Israel/USA, it is KSA which is just waiting for the Persians to fail, so that they could kick out the Houthis in next door Yemen. 

- Iran’s only course of action is to fire rockets at Israel. They can’t even fly jets near Israel. 

Plus they don’t enjoy widespread support among the citizenry. 

Iran is very weak.

raytoei

davesmith001

This is better than reading manga! Thanks for the events breakdown.

tato0418

Markets didn’t drop as much as I thought they would today, in my mind Monday is pointing to red with potential retaliations from both parties over the weekend.

marketertips

Thanks for the breakdown. I really enjoyed reading through it.

TickedOffTrader

FrogFishTurtle

FlatAd768

Trump calls the strike excellent but claims neutrality lmaooo

Academic_District224

Not content with murdering Palestinians, the war mongering machine, sponsored by the US, wants to murder Iranian children. No fan of the Islamic Republic of Iran, but the American public seriously need to re-evaluate their relationship with their blood thirsty love child. Israel is the basic cause of conflict in the Middle East.

How do you retaliate knowing your enemy has a nuke

Pristine_Mistake_149

I fear this may escalate more than the strikes from last year. This time, several generals, including the leader of the revolutionary guard corps, have been killed. From these titles, the chief of staff was also killed along with top nuclear scientists? This is much worse of a fallout for Iran than the last time and so many generals killed is highly escalatory. 

Also, just some slight corrections! The 9:32pm article states Senator rather than Sec of State Rubio. Also, the “eve” of the strikes should be listed as Thursday, June 13 and the day of the strikes should be listed as Friday, June 14. Altogether though, great post. Thank you for sharing and consolidating! I hadn’t been privy to the buildup and was caught by surprise when I saw the breaking news notification that Israel struck Iran.

hab365

RexPelagiuz

Bubbly_Working9184

I’ve been following defense stocks closely — LMT and RTX moved fast after recent news. I actually broke this down in a post if you’re interested.

[https://wealth-whispers.beehiiv.com/subscribe](https://wealth-whispers.beehiiv.com/subscribe)

gstanleycapital

With the repositioning of US embassy’s staff this week, I’m not sure how anyone could be surprised this happened.  The only surprise I see is that it happened Thursday night/Friday morning.

I wouldn't give the Israelis the deep bunker buster bombs to hit the ultra protected Iranian nuclear site, but I know who I favor.

Go gettem Israel.  Some of us haven’t forgotten the hostage crisis.

Longjumping-Ad8775

Trump urges restraint so that he could tell his friends to sell the market.  

To  bomb in the afternoon in Iran and make sure it is  after market close.

What a coincidence!!

2to20million

smooth_and_rough

Looks like mr sausage got killed.

https://www.ndtv.com/world-news/iran-revolutionary-guards-chief-hossein-salami-killed-in-israeli-attack-news-agency-afp-cites-iran-media-8655735

Meanwhile the rest of the Middle East are quietly cheering Israel on.

One day the western leaning world will thank Israel  for iraq in 1981, Syria in 2007 and Iran in 2025.

——

~~I will never forget these bad regimes cheering for 9/11 and wanting to teach the world a lesson~~

This was a very long winded post for saying I lost money today

OrganizationWest3187

No-Economy-666

It appears Israel has bombed Iran's oil facilities, potentially hurting europe's oil imports.

In response, it appears Iran has bombed Israel's oil facilities, potentially hurting Israel's oil imports. 

Iran *could* bomb Saudi Arabia's oil facilities and disrupt world trade badly. But they will hesitate to hurt their ally China. How do they damage exports to their enemies without damaging exports to their friends? On the other hand, their ally Russia would be happy if competing oil exporters are hurt.

You have described the probably short-run effects of the war on the US economy. Effects on the world? If this does slow the rate of global oil consumption, then it slows the rate that climate change is increasing and gives us a slightly better chance to survive. But there are so many variables at play that this is uncertain. 

It's plausible, maybe likely, that Israel will wind up nuking Iran. Israel might get nuked in return by Pakistani nukes, or Russian nukes. As the effects get measured, the world will get the impression that a single small nuclear war doesn't do that *much* global damage, and increase the chance of other small nuclear wars.

jethomas5

The ongoing Iran-Israel conflict has raised concerns regarding potential disruptions in global trade, particularly through the Strait of Hormuz, a vital oil shipping route.

Iran-Israel Conflict and Global Trade Impact

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